2011 IBR - The Inside View

[FJR-Richie]

The way I read that then is while 4-corners will get you a Gold, not getting 4-corners is probably the ticket to podium. 4-corners is clearly the red herring. Alaska was the not the red herring that most believed it to be.

That was also how I interpreted Austin's comments although I am troubled by his comment about someone picking up corner 3 on leg 2 will have a clear advantage over the rest of the field. To me that implies Hyder could really be the red herring and in reality, Meese has a deficit of 1,621 points to Frens at the start of leg 2 which he needs to make up on leg 2.

In other words, after the scoring comes in from Leg 2, if the gap between Meese and Frens is less than 4800 then effectively Frens has the lead assuming he will complete 4 corners. But the real question will be the value of the Capitols in leg 3 in determining whether 4 corners or Hyder was the red herring. So going back to Ausin's comments it would seem the escalating capitol values in leg 3 should benefit Meese but....

Really, who the fuck knows??????

 

[McRide]

I think Meese has Hyder and Oregon as well.

Only Peek has Hyder and Oregon going into Leg #3

Not according to the Leg #1 Rider Scorecards.

Scorecards

 

[YankeeFeejer]

At least he's made it to the mainland.... now to reach I-95 and blaze north to Jax!

Jim is just passing through Port St. Lucie. He has about 220 miles to the checkpoint. Which would put him in there at approximately 5:30 pm. Bob St. G

 

[Jeff Earls]

I think Meese has Hyder and Oregon as well.

Only Peek has Hyder and Oregon going into Leg #3

Not according to the Leg #1 Rider Scorecards.

Scorecards

The scorecards only show capitals bagged, not states except for Alaska which was a special case.

 

[SkooterG]

I think Meese has Hyder and Oregon as well.

Only Peek has Hyder and Oregon going into Leg #3

Not according to the Leg #1 Rider Scorecards.

Scorecards

Hey buckaroo, you need to read Tom Austin's daily reports where he clearly stated that Meese and Peak were the two riders to claim Hyder and the state of Oregon. As Jeff pointed out, you can get a state without getting a capital.

We are on to bigger and better stuff here.........

 

[Matt B]

May have the state but not the capital

I think Meese has Hyder and Oregon as well.

Only Peek has Hyder and Oregon going into Leg #3

Not according to the Leg #1 Rider Scorecards.

Scorecards

 

[Twigg]

I hope y'all can put up with my blathering about strategy!

I am learning so much here .... for one thing:

I could see myself picking up the Leg 1 packet .... realising that Alaska was a feasible choice but NOT realising that I needed Oregon first.

So the first lesson ..... Spend a little of your planning time at the start trying to visualise the whole concept of the Rally, not just the Leg you are facing. In of itself, that would have made the Oregon situation clear.

 

[Matt B]

On the 2011 Iron Butt Rally, Day 5 update it is noted that "Roger still needs Oregon!" but not noted for Dick Peek or Meese so I assume he got the state but not the capital

 

[ChrisW]

At the beginning of the Butt Lite 4, the late Eddie James said in his rallymaster speech at the beginning, something to the effect of

I remember Adam saying that "a consistent effort will be rewarded"

I took this to mean that we should not expect the value of the bonus's to increase exponentially on legs 2 and 3. Which they didn't.

I haven't heard that the riders got the same message in this years IBR rider meetings.

I think the capitals will be worth a lot on leg 3.

Jim's the man, but he is not going to be well rested, and had to ride past a bunch of capitals that the AK 3 didn't. Sinclair still has to get to OR, but he's been racking up capitals on leg 2, and the miles go by pretty quickly in NV ;^)

Jim will also have to ride 150 miles past the finish to get that last corner. I still think he's riding for 4th, but I'd like to see him win it.

 

[SkooterG]

Really, who the fuck knows??????

Bagging Key West on leg 2 puts the rider on close to equal footing with the Hyder guys. All those riders (Hyder and leg 2 Key West) now can use leg 3 to go point gathering in whatever manner Austin has come up with without having to bother with the Key West timesucker on leg 3. Yet they all have a 4800 point advantage over the rest of the field. The reason I say *close* to equal footing, is I have to wonder what points were given up to obtain Key West on leg 2. Also, how whiped out will Frens be compared to Hyder guys at start of leg 3? Too, if Meese or Peak went to Madawaska, ME, how many points did they sacrifice in doing that when my gut tells me that points will be big enough for stuff on leg 3 that abandoning the 4-corners (Time-sucking ride to Key West) will be the *smart* move for the truly competitive hard-core rider.

I still don't see what they can do to give 'the rest' of the field a legitimate shot at the top few positions, (or Austin's claimed 'third route to a podium finish) but I am hoping Austin surprises me. Too, a 'podium finish' is positions 4-7 also and maybe that is what the 'rest of the field' will be riding for.

Where's my beer?

 

[Warchild]

As Jeff pointed out, you can get a state without getting a capital.

Correct, which is why Peek's Scorecard shows Oregon, and Meese's does not.... Peek got the points associated with scoring the capital at Salem; Meese just touched the state with a receipt.

Of the Hyder players, Sinclair is the one who is most boned, due to him not scoring Oregon on Leg One.

 

[Jeff Earls]

Jim is just passing through Port St. Lucie. He has about 220 miles to the checkpoint. Which would put him in there at approximately 5:30 pm. Bob St. G

To add to the drama, there are a lot of thunderstorms boiling up right now on the I-95 corridor south of JAX.

 

[MX727]

less than 3 hours before Penalty points... some of these folks need to move....

How about a Spot update on Frens? Purdy Please?

 

[Powershouse]

I'm thinking that the Leg 3 Base Route in the original rally pack is a red herring.

We've been told that the value of capitol bonuses is based on the distance from the base route presented in the first rally pack. We also know that Harrisburg, PA was worth 1000 points and that capitols along the base route are worth about 25 points. Looking at the base route and comparing the distance from the route to Harrisburg (or to the end point of Leg 1), and the distance from the base route to Austin, Denver, Salt Lake City (maybe not available on this leg), Carson City and Sacremento, I can see each of these Leg 3 capitols being worth on the order of 2000 points. It looks like the southeastern capitols are all along the base route and will offer minimal points. So Leg 3 of the base route presented in the initial bonus pack seems to be a red herring.

I haven't mapped it out, (I do have a day job ) but I'm thinking that a route to Austin, then north to Denver being sure to pick up Arkansas along the way, then over to Carson City and Sacramento, then south to the fourth corner and/or the finish will be the preferred route and may not allow time to get Key West also.

Still don't see how anyone can beat the Alaskan trippers though.

 

[Warchild]

To add to the drama, there are a lot of thunderstorms boiling up right now on the I-95 corridor south of JAX.

 

[Warchild]

How about a Spot update on Frens? Purdy Please?

It's not Jim I am concerned about... we still show 4-5 riders in northern part of South Carolina.... they need to move with a purpose.

Although we have come to learn to not get too excited about worrisome SPOT breadcrumbs as the Checkpoint windows draws near.... some my have forgotten to re-enter tracking mode, etc.

 

[graler]

Have they ever offered a multiplier in past rallies? This would reward the consistent acquistion of capitals at least. This could be done on a scale - the more capitals the bigger the multiplier. This could encourage some all out scrounging to increase that number. Just speculation from the comfort of my office.

Joe

 

[mdisher]

How about a Spot update on Frens? Purdy Please?

Somebody's gonna be late.

 

[puppychow]

What are the penalty points which accumulate after 5PM EST? Do they accumulate at a granularity of per minute and how much per minute?

Will JIM make it before penalties accrue? *bites fist*

 

[MX727]

Probably not too bad, allowing for Spot lag. 15-30 minutes late if the WX doesn't hurt too bad.