Deer Strikes by State

[harper]

I am constantly amused by charts such as this that make no sense whatsoever. Odds of a deer strike? What does that even mean? Per miles driven? Per 100,000 people? Per 100,000 deer? The OP indicated that this was "data compiled from auto accident insurance claims" suggesting that the data are per insurance claim but there is no indication of this on the chart. The possible threat that State Farm is advertising by claiming that the "chances of hitting a deer are 1 in 43 in West Virginia" is vacuous at best.

 

[Mortenk]

I am constantly amused by charts such as this that make no sense whatsoever. Odds of a deer strike? What does that even mean? Per miles driven? Per 100,000 people? Per 100,000 deer? The OP indicated that this was "data compiled from auto accident insurance claims" suggesting that the data are per insurance claim but there is no indication of this on the chart. The possible threat that State Farm is advertising by claiming that the "chances of hitting a deer are 1 in 43 in West Virginia" is vacuous at best.

Totally agree. You can make statistics look anyway you want - and in this case it's totally unclear what we are looking at...on to the next post.

 

[Uncle Hud]

^^^^ As an engineer who deals with probabilities (odds), I clearly understand your post -- which is why I was stunned that the probability of a deer strike within the District of Columbia is 1 in 713. That means, of the 521,000 drivers in DC (source), about 730 will experience a deer strike each year. That's a bunch of deer for an urbanized area.

Also according to the illustration, 1 in 6,823 drivers IN HAWAII will hit a deer annually. Of the 951,000 drivers in Hawaii (same source as above), that's about 140 deer strikes per year. Based on four years of residency in the Aloha State, you'd have to be driving through a zoo to hit a deer, and losing 140 deer per year should eliminate deer completely from the Islands in no time at all.

The entire illustration sounds a little off to me, but it does spark a conversation!

PS: Can't find this data anywhere on the State Farm website.

 

[sapest]

People

I posted this chart because I thought it was interesting.

Read into it whatever makes you sleep better at night.

https://www.statefarm.com/simple-insights/auto-and-vehicles/how-likely-are-you-to-have-a-deer-collision

-Steve

 

[harper]

Hey, nothing against you, Steve. State Farm published the chart.

I have a friend who, while he was landing an airplane, hit an elk.

https://www.dailyastorian.com/archives/gazette/news/pilot-hits-elk-during-landing/article_515e6c67-4e23-56ed-9149-367096cb1634.html

I don't know what State Farm would say about the probability of hitting an elk with an airplane, though.

 

[sapest]

None taken.

Now I am wondering what is more interesting, the chart, or that this thread is already two pages!

-Steve

 

[Pterodactyl]

I am constantly amused by charts such as this that make no sense whatsoever. Odds of a deer strike? What does that even mean? Per miles driven? Per 100,000 people? Per 100,000 deer? The OP indicated that this was "data compiled from auto accident insurance claims" suggesting that the data are per insurance claim but there is no indication of this on the chart. The possible threat that State Farm is advertising by claiming that the "chances of hitting a deer are 1 in 43 in West Virginia" is vacuous at best.

Well, maybe, but insurance companies live and die by properly computing odds. I think they pay people a tremendous amount of money to get it right because if they don't then they go under. I do not recall a major insurance company going bankrupt.

 

[sapest]

https://www.hpr2.org/post/although-probability-has-increased-hawai-i-drivers-continue-be-least-likely-hit-deer

Deerfriendly.com estimates Hawaiian deer population at 8k to 10k.

-Steve

 

[Uncle Hud]

No ill intent towards you, sapest, in any of my comments. Just pointing out weird shit about statistics.

By the way, I found several sources that put the Hawaiian deer population between 8,000 and 10,000. Almost all of Hawaii's deer are on the island of Lanai - the only island where you can hunt them - with a modest herd on Molokai and a small herd in the upper elevations of Maui, presumably in Haleakala National Park. These statistics are from the Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources: https://dlnr.hawaii.gov/hisc/files/2015/04/Public-Vertebrate-Report-Final-HISC-2016.pdf

No mention of any deer on Oahu, the island with Honolulu and almost all the population. The last deer on the Big Island was "dispatched" in 2013.

Again, only to suggest that State Farm oddsmakers are skewing their math.

 

[sapest]

I contacted State Farm, and found someone who told me that the chart data means that statistically one out of every x number of drivers will hit a deer in a 12 month period.

-Steve

 

[RacinRay]

Hawaiian deer population