2011 IBR - The Inside View

[Warchild]

Brilliant news on John Young completing Leg2, any news on the English rider, Phil Weston?

The Frazer is still underway, he's with that group currently south of Savannah.

And Jim Frens is about to strike the Florida mainland.

 

[twistedcricket]

I shoulda started that "fantasy IBR" thing...I woulda picked that Young rider

 

[101stpathfinder]

He then needs to cover approximately 500 miles to the checkpoint before the 5:00 pm window. Bob St. George

A loooooooooog way to go for Mr Jim..... this snapshot was taken at 10:45am EDT....

OUCH......

R

Once he reaches Homestead, it will be clear sailing for him. 5 hours at rally speeds...

although arrival in Jax at 5:00 pm? Double ouch!

 

[Warchild]

Once he reaches Homestead, it will be clear sailing for him. 5 hours at rally speeds...

although arrival in Jax at 5:00 pm? Double ouch!

Riders were warned - many times - to arrive in Jax early and get some rest. Don't really see that happening now for Jim Frens.... hope that decision doesn't come back to bite him.....

 

[Jeff Earls]

Alaska riders who get Key West on Leg 3, rather than the punishing schedule for Leg 2 might still be very handily placed. They can probably afford to miss out Carson City and Sacramento, because the Alaska bonus should outscore those two handily.

The sum of Carson City and Sacramento only needs to equal 4800 points to nullify Alaska. I see that as quite in range for what might be on the bonus listing for point values.

 

[robeth]

He then needs to cover approximately 500 miles to the checkpoint before the 5:00 pm window. Bob St. George

A loooooooooog way to go for Mr Jim..... this snapshot was taken at 10:45am EDT....

Penalty points after 1700 are one per minute up to the 1900 DNF time, right?

That'd be worth it to me to score Key West......now, about no rest time before leg 3 starts....that's a different story.

 

[Jeff Earls]

Once he reaches Homestead, it will be clear sailing for him. 5 hours at rally speeds...

although arrival in Jax at 5:00 pm? Double ouch!

Riders were warned - many times - to arrive in Jax early and get some rest. Don't really see that happening now for Jim Frens.... hope that decision doesn't come back to bite him.....

It looks like there are plenty of riders to the north that are nearly as far away from the check as Jim (not accounting for SPOT latency, that is).

 

[gixxerjasen]

Yea, but those riders to the north don't have 35mph speed limits to contend with that Jim has.

 

[Warchild]

At least he's made it to the mainland.... now to reach I-95 and blaze north to Jax!

 

[Jeff Earls]

Yea, but those riders to the north don't have 35mph speed limits to contend with.

Nope, they don't. They are still looking at a strong need to hump it to get to Jax by 1700.

I did Key West on the '03 IBR so I'm aware of the challenge in front of Jim. He's one hell of a strong rider and this type of high-mileage burn/slog plays to those strengths. He will make it, just maybe into the penalty window a bit.

 

[101stpathfinder]

Once he reaches Homestead, it will be clear sailing for him. 5 hours at rally speeds...

although arrival in Jax at 5:00 pm? Double ouch!

Riders were warned - many times - to arrive in Jax early and get some rest. Don't really see that happening now for Jim Frens.... hope that decision doesn't come back to bite him.....

It looks like there are plenty of riders to the north that are nearly as far away from the check as Jim (not accounting for SPOT latency, that is).

IMHO This leg 2 that Jim is pulling off (So far) puts him in contention to challenge the Hyder riders.

Without Key West (And barring a huge increase in capital value) I think it would have been a drop kick

for a 3 Hyder rider podium finish. BUTT... Still many miles to ride!

 

[Twigg]

Alaska riders who get Key West on Leg 3, rather than the punishing schedule for Leg 2 might still be very handily placed. They can probably afford to miss out Carson City and Sacramento, because the Alaska bonus should outscore those two handily.

The sum of Carson City and Sacramento only needs to equal 4800 points to nullify Alaska. I see that as quite in range for what might be on the bonus listing for point values.

Good point Jeff, well taken.

A couple of thoughts on that ..... From the base route, Carson City and Sacramento don't seem as far to ride as Hyder ... yet, yet, yet ...

What we are missing in our armchairs is tone and nuance.

Dale has said how riders were repeatedly told to get some rest before leg 3. That would suggest there is something in Leg 3 that could be a gamechanger. The one guy who will leave Jacksonville having already scored Key West will be knackered before he starts so it becomes an interesting planning session.

Two have Alaska AND Oregon already, and should be well rested. One has Alaska but needs Oregon. Some have no Alaska, but two corners and would need Key West to blow past Peek and Meese, restricting their chance of big bonuses on Leg 3.

Maybe it's a head fake, and the 4 Corners is the red herring?

If you have Alaska AND are rested enough to grab big Leg 3 Capitols, then forget Key West and go mop up a win, or a very high placed finish.

Oh ... and try doing all this planning when you have already covered 8 or 9000 miles .... Sheesh!

They are ALL heroes.

 

[MX727]

If I'm reading between the lines correctly, 4-corners isn't going to work for anyone that tries for KW on leg three. The capital bonii must increase exponentially tomorrow.

They don't have to increase exponentially. They may, but it could simply be that there are so many State Capitols many miles from the base route, that there could be 5 or 6 carrying 1000 point each.

It seems that the best route was likely to have been to grab Oregon and Blaine early, mop up the northern States and get Madawaska on Leg 1. Then down the Eastern seaboard grabbing Key West on Leg 2. On Leg 3 a route that gets all those southern and western State Capitols that will carry high points, finishing with San Ysidro for the 4 Corners.

Alaska was the sucker bonus, but not so sucky for anyone who could get it, with Oregon on Leg 1, then get both Madawaska and Key West on Leg 2. If they had any energy left they would be as free as anyone to get the big Capitols on Leg 3, and they wouldn't need many.

So now I want to know where Peek and Meese are, and whether or not the four hour delay has screwed Ken Meese.

From Austin's update, they didn't get Key West on leg 2 and that same update is where it seems that the capitals are going to offset the Leg 3 4-corners plan. Seems there is going to be a big surprise when they open that last pack. :blink:

 

[gixxerjasen]

Yea, but those riders to the north don't have 35mph speed limits to contend with.

Nope, they don't. They are still looking at a strong need to hump it to get to Jax by 1700.

I did Key West on the '03 IBR so I'm aware of the challenge in front of Jim. He's one hell of a strong rider and this type of high-mileage burn/slog plays to those strengths. He will make it, just maybe into the penalty window a bit.

Oop, should have looked at the poster there. Living in Florida I've done that trip in the car and it is mind numbing. Blah. I can't imagine trying to tame my throttle hand for that long, all while watching for cops and key deer!

Plus, I was looking at the screen shot. I see he's now made land and should feel relieved to have open highways and reasonable speed limits in front of him. Wish he was on the spotwalla page with the rest of the folks.

 

[Jeff Earls]

Maybe it's a head fake, and the 4 Corners is the red herring?

If you have Alaska AND are rested enough to grab big Leg 3 Capitols, then forget Key West and go mop up a win, or a very high placed finish.

At this point, I'm flying as blind as the rest of you (except Dale).

I expect something unexpected.

I keep mulling over "big combo bonus for all leg 3 capitals" but can't work out in my head how that would be a game changer. What would level the playing field just enough to make the Alaska and 4-Corners players need to rethink their plans tonight? We shall see.

If Jim completes his bid for KW on this leg, he'll effectively be on par with the Alaska players. Of course, we don't know what states he skipped, if any, on this leg to make the run.

 

[SkooterG]

I expect something unexpected.

I keep mulling over "big combo bonus for all leg 3 capitals" but can't work out in my head how that would be a game changer. What would level the playing field just enough to make the Alaska and 4-Corners players need to rethink their plans tonight? We shall see.

If Jim completes his bid for KW on this leg, he'll effectively be on par with the Alaska players. Of course, we don't know what states he skipped, if any, on this leg to make the run.

Exactly.

However, what I DON'T see is anything that can happen that will nullify the advatage of Meese and Peek - the two riders who have Hyder AND Oregon. They will have the same opportunity on leg 3 as anyone else with Hyder not being any disadvantage. It will be very interesting to see that leg 3 packet and see how many riders who planned the 4-corners will now abandon that plan to get those higher points on leg 3. (Big assumpition there)

I still say this rally is Meese's and Peak's to lose. They can only beat themselves. Now the rest will have to do some serious planning and riding to get those remaining 8 podium finishes. What a BORING leg this has been. :lol: Can't wait for leg 3 to start!

 

[DNA]

Ok - since we are in speculation mode - I'm going to double down a on my earlier bet that there will be something huge for getting all 48 capitals.

The guys that passed up Fargo or other northern capitals that were very little points may have to go back and get it them now?

This is riveting. And tragic.

 

[SkooterG]

Ok - since we are in speculation mode - I'm going to double down a on my earlier bet that there will be something huge for getting all 48 capitals.

The guys that passed up Fargo or other northern capitals that were very little points may have to go back and get it them now?

I just don't see that happening at all. The IBR is run fairly straight forward. They do an excellent job and I have never seen them try to 'trick' riders. They will challenge them, and surprise them, but not trick them.

So without some prior indication before the start of leg 1, they are not going to throw in a type of bonus that the riders needed to have been planning for at the last second on leg 3.

 

[mdisher]

Ok - since we are in speculation mode - I'm going to double down a on my earlier bet that there will be something huge for getting all 48 capitals.

The guys that passed up Fargo or other northern capitals that were very little points may have to go back and get it them now?

I don't know, that'd be a super cheesedick rallymaster move IMHO. Setting unknown values for unknown future bonus locations is reasonable and expected.

Setting new boni, or values for things that happened, or didn't in the past seems not good to me.

Unless of course that 'get them all' option was on the table from the get go but an an unknown value.

Hedging your bets is one thing, but guessing as to what *might* be a bonus and basing a rally on what might or might not be hasn't ever really been a rally strategy has it?

?

That'd be like saying, Oh, if you were one of the ones who got X,Y,and Z capitols on leg 1 and 2, congrats, your now riding for a podium finish because behind door 3 we have 1m points for those capitols.

 

[MX727]

BTW, I didn't see Howard Entman on the call in list. Is he still running?