Market view from a former day trader.
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Malve
Well-known member
The Black Swan is the must read of the year.
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0Face
Well-known member
Malve
Well-known member
yes, I know that it wasn't written this year smarty pants. 
Joe2Lmaker
Well-known member
Well...
Thanks guys. I'm not sure if my interest in this subject is a sign of masochism or sadism.
This week's rally made no sense to me.
edit: deleted redundancy deleted redundancy
Thanks guys. I'm not sure if my interest in this subject is a sign of masochism or sadism.
This week's rally made no sense to me.
edit: deleted redundancy deleted redundancy
Last edited by a moderator:
OGRE
Well-known member
Glad I already bought ammo. Ammo prices have only gone up and up as the market goes down and down.
Khunajawdge
Toto El Mundo!
The financial crisis explained in simple terms...............................
Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Berlin . In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers - most of whom are unemployed alcoholics - to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).
Word gets around and as a result increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Taking advantage of her customers' freedom from immediate payment constraints, Heidi increases her prices for wine and beer, the most-consumed beverages. Her sales volume increases massively.
A young and dynamic customer service consultant at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral.
At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert bankers transform these customer assets into DRINKBONDS, ALKBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then traded on markets worldwide. No one really understands what these abbreviations mean (?), and how the securities are guaranteed. Nevertheless, as their prices continuously climb, the securities become top-selling items.
One day, although the prices are still climbing, a risk manager (subsequently, of course fired due his negativity) of the bank decides that slowly the time has come to demand payment of the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. However they cannot pay back the debts. Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy. DRINKBOND and ALKBOND drop in price by 95 %. PUKEBOND performs better, stabilizing in price after dropping by 80 %.
The suppliers of Heidi's bar, having granted her generous payment due dates and having invested in the securities are faced with a new situation. Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor. The bank is saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock consultations by leaders from the governing political parties. The funds required for this purpose are obtained by a tax levied on the non-drinkers.
Finally an explanation I understand...
Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Berlin . In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers - most of whom are unemployed alcoholics - to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).
Word gets around and as a result increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Taking advantage of her customers' freedom from immediate payment constraints, Heidi increases her prices for wine and beer, the most-consumed beverages. Her sales volume increases massively.
A young and dynamic customer service consultant at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral.
At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert bankers transform these customer assets into DRINKBONDS, ALKBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then traded on markets worldwide. No one really understands what these abbreviations mean (?), and how the securities are guaranteed. Nevertheless, as their prices continuously climb, the securities become top-selling items.
One day, although the prices are still climbing, a risk manager (subsequently, of course fired due his negativity) of the bank decides that slowly the time has come to demand payment of the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. However they cannot pay back the debts. Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy. DRINKBOND and ALKBOND drop in price by 95 %. PUKEBOND performs better, stabilizing in price after dropping by 80 %.
The suppliers of Heidi's bar, having granted her generous payment due dates and having invested in the securities are faced with a new situation. Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor. The bank is saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock consultations by leaders from the governing political parties. The funds required for this purpose are obtained by a tax levied on the non-drinkers.
Finally an explanation I understand...
FJRPierre
Making up for lost time...
As someone who has been fresh meat for over 40 years, I agree with this comment and other similar ones. This is not game for laymen and the market has nothing to do with logic or business, only greed and fear (now highly computerized greed and fear). I feared greatly over 2 years ago and buried my pittance in the back yard. I think it's still there... <_<
BYW how did Heidie really fare? Did she manage to salt enough away in the Caymans to skulk away in the style she was used to? She didn't have a personal jet did she?
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dwhartwell
Well-known member
I've come to believe the following:
- The time is long gone for Joe/Jane Average with 401K investments in the market to expect to make any real returns. The big insurance companies,
investment houses have one thing on their mind. Make money for themselves and they have the sophisticated means to do that. The big players can
move money in seconds. Most of us cannot move our funds any quicker than 1 day.
- Allowing puts and calls is simply WRONG. Money is manipulated using these tools, and all to often like the OP posted, there are inside illegal
actions taking place using these tools for greed at the expense of others
- Trading in oil, food commodities should never be allowed. Greed drove the oil prices sky high through oil commodity trading. These are basic essentials
we need to operate as a nation and when greed kicks in, Joe and Jane average gets screwed.
- Make a statement next election and vote out the long term incumbents. These F'ers are stealing your money every paycheck, have given themselves quite
the benefit and retirement packages, and continually make laws that benefit the major corporations that work to screw us. I'd like to find a way for
example to change all the benefits for our senators and house reps. Make them chip in for their healthcare. Give them the SAME healthcare insurance
and HMO options we get to choose from. Pension? Sorry, many of us got F'd years ago on this. In my case at Digital Equipment corp, the pension
plan was disbanded, and you were given a lump sum based upon pay and years of service and your current age. That money could be invested in a
"401K". Do you think most made out on this? Since pensions are in the past, and congress as made laws that allow corporations to play these games,
they should get the same treatment. We look at their years of service and pay, deposit amounts that are in line with the common guy and let them
build their retirement nest egg like we all have to.
May I remind us all of this excerpt from the US declaration of independence.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.
- The time is long gone for Joe/Jane Average with 401K investments in the market to expect to make any real returns. The big insurance companies,
investment houses have one thing on their mind. Make money for themselves and they have the sophisticated means to do that. The big players can
move money in seconds. Most of us cannot move our funds any quicker than 1 day.
- Allowing puts and calls is simply WRONG. Money is manipulated using these tools, and all to often like the OP posted, there are inside illegal
actions taking place using these tools for greed at the expense of others
- Trading in oil, food commodities should never be allowed. Greed drove the oil prices sky high through oil commodity trading. These are basic essentials
we need to operate as a nation and when greed kicks in, Joe and Jane average gets screwed.
- Make a statement next election and vote out the long term incumbents. These F'ers are stealing your money every paycheck, have given themselves quite
the benefit and retirement packages, and continually make laws that benefit the major corporations that work to screw us. I'd like to find a way for
example to change all the benefits for our senators and house reps. Make them chip in for their healthcare. Give them the SAME healthcare insurance
and HMO options we get to choose from. Pension? Sorry, many of us got F'd years ago on this. In my case at Digital Equipment corp, the pension
plan was disbanded, and you were given a lump sum based upon pay and years of service and your current age. That money could be invested in a
"401K". Do you think most made out on this? Since pensions are in the past, and congress as made laws that allow corporations to play these games,
they should get the same treatment. We look at their years of service and pay, deposit amounts that are in line with the common guy and let them
build their retirement nest egg like we all have to.
May I remind us all of this excerpt from the US declaration of independence.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.
Toecutter
What would DoG do?
If this topic gets closed, can we re-open it on April 1st?
